‘Tariff-ic Uncertainty’ Has Arrived, Global Growth To Slow
Commentary about the 130th Issue: To our readers: some issues are more positive than others. This issue highlights the upcoming impact of tariffs on our lives and on doing global business while addressing the uncertainty of what the tariffs will be, where they will be applied, when and by whom. As the Economist magazine says, “One thing is certain so far about Trumponomics: no one is sure where it is heading, with radically different possibilities.” Bloomberg says, “forecasting is maddeningly difficult because US policy is so inconsistent.” Tariffs could push Canada into a recession. The OECD says that “Global growth will slow this year and next, from 3.2 per cent last year to 3.1 per cent and 3 per cent in 2025 and 2026.” U.S. airlines expect higher costs from tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and weakened travel demand due to a slowing economy, leading to lower profit forecasts, stock declines, and cautious financial outlooks for 2025. And a little bit about NATO…….The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a preliminary reading of 57.9 in March, the third consecutive monthly drop and the lowest reading since November 2022.
One More Thing: Today “King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency” by Paul Blustein is being published today and offers a very timely and insightful analysis of the U.S. dollar’s enduring supremacy in global finance. He examines historical and contemporary challenges to the dollar, including economic sanctions and emerging digital currencies, concluding that the dollar’s preeminence is likely to persist barring significant policy errors by the United States.
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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Your time is limited, don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” – Steve Jobs
“It always seems impossible until it’s done.” – Nelson Mandela
“If you want to achieve greatness, stop asking for permission.” – Anonymous
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Highlights in issue #130:
The World’s Top 20 Economies by GDP Growth (2015-2025)
“(Canadian) Employers begin layoffs as Canada-U.S. trade war intensifies
Major U.S. airlines warn consumers aren’t spending
How to use AI as a ‘force multiplier’ to start a business
Maintaining Brand Identity While Adapting to International Markets
The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate
A Slowdown in Saudi Arabia Is Roiling the Consulting Market
Brand Global News Section: Crunch Fitness® and Gong Cha®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“The Age of Data – Data’s emergence as a resource more valuable than oil tells a story of how economics and technology changed in the last 50 years and converged with geopolitics and AI in a race for global power. Ever more essential by the day, data pulses through cables under our oceans and satellites over our skies. Visual Capitalist takes a deep dive into the age of data. It is a thoroughly modern irony that the world’s most abundant resource is now also its most critical asset. In the age of data, ever-increasing amounts of the resource are being generated, collected, traded, analyzed, and weaponized to make decisions that change the way we live, do business, and the very course of history. The ability to amass and manipulate data has compounded our control over the development of AI and the direction of geopolitics, placing data as a commodity squarely at the convergence of an increasingly frantic race between nations for global power.”, Visual Capitalist, March 11, 2025
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“The World’s Top 20 Economies by GDP Growth (2015-2025) – This graphic ranks countries by their forecasted gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, and visualizes their inflation-adjusted growth since 2015. The 2015 figure was calculated by reversing the effects of real GDP growth for every intervening year. All figures are in 2025 dollars. Data for this chart is sourced from the International Monetary Fund.”, Visual Capitalist and the International Monetary Fund, March 3, 2025
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“The Evolution of NATO – New realities have forced new positions. For the past 75 years, NATO has been the de facto defender of Europe. Virtually every country on the Continent has its own armed forces, of course, and the alliance includes countries like the United States and Canada that are not, in fact, European. But when it comes to external threats against the whole, NATO has been the first and last name in collective defense. More explicitly, NATO was created as a U.S.-secured bulwark against the Soviet Union. Indeed, the entire alliance was arrayed against the threat from Moscow. So when the Soviet Union collapsed, NATO reconfigured itself as a broader cooperative security organization – only it did so without a common enemy, leaving its 32 members more or less independent to decide for themselves what is and is not a threat to their interests. This has pulled the alliance into multiple directions by nations, or blocs of nations, that disagree on what NATO’s role should be going forward. To be sure, many members still see Russia as the primary threat to their security. Others, however, believe the organization should shift its focus to places like the Arctic, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific, where its members often share economic and political interests.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 14, 2025
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“How to use AI as a ‘force multiplier’ to start a business – If you’re thinking of starting a new business and need advice on what to do, your first move should be turning to an artificial intelligence chatbot tool, like OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Anthropic’s Claude. That’s according to Steve Blank, who has written four books on the subject of entrepreneurship. He helped build eight different tech startups, of which he co-founded four, before retiring over two decades ago. His final startup, business software company Epiphany, sold to SSA Global Technologies for $329 million in 2005. Blank is currently an adjunct professor at Stanford University, where he teaches courses on innovation and his Lean Startup method. ‘AI [is] a force multiplier to everything you do,’ Blank tells CNBC Make It. ‘AI could help you figure out where to get outside, probably faster than anything else. If you have a business idea, [ask] something like ChatGPT: ‘I have Idea X, has anybody done it? Why hasn’t [it] worked? Where should I best do this?’””, CNBC Make It, March 17, 2025
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“The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate – The billion-dollar startup bubble is deflating, and more than $1 trillion in value is locked up in companies with dwindling prospects. By the time the Covid-era tech boom crested in 2021, well over 1,000 venture capital-backed startups had reached valuations above $1 billion, including fake meat purveyor Impossible Foods Inc., home maintenance marketplace Thumbtack and online-class platform MasterClass. Then came a squeeze sparked by rising interest rates, a slowing initial public offering market and the feeling that any startup not focused on AI was yesterday’s news. In 2021 more than 354 companies received billion-dollar valuations, thus achieving unicorn status. Only six of them have since held IPOs, says Ilya Strebulaev, a professor at Stanford Graduate School of Business. Four others have gone public through SPACs, and another 10 have been acquired, several for less than $1 billion. Others, such as the indoor farming company Bowery Farming and AI health-care startup Forward Health, have gone under.”, Bloomberg, February 14, 2025
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“Ten indicators explain what’s going on with America’s economy – One thing is certain so far about Trumponomics: no one is sure where it is heading, with radically different possibilities. Detractors point to all the disruption from tariffs. Supporters buy into Mr Trump’s pledge that he will bring about a new “golden age” for the American economy, fuelled by tax cuts and deregulation. One way of measuring all of this uncertainty is the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, devised by three American economists. The index tracks media coverage, tax policies and disagreements among economic forecasters. It spiked at the height of covid before falling below its long-term average under Mr Biden. Now it is once again soaring. Uncertainty can be a problem in and of itself, acting as an impediment for both businesses and consumers who face tough decisions. It is hard to commit to a large purchase or investment if the next few months, let alone the next few years, are so hard to predict.”, The Economist, March 14, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Tariff Anxiety and the Dilemma of Forecasting – Investors want clarity. Will the Trump administration stand up to the market? Tariffs on Mexico are off again, for another month; tariff uncertainty remains and it’s damaging. Paraphrasing FDR, there is an argument that we have nothing to fear from tariffs, save tariff fear itself. There are arguments that the cost might not be that high, but forecasting is maddeningly difficult because US policy is so inconsistent.”, Bloomberg, March 6, 2025
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“Top 10 US deficits and surpluses – What the headlines miss: The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency, which means foreign governments and institutions hold large amounts of it. When they hold non-interest-bearing dollars (such as physical currency or certain reserve balances), it effectively serves as an interest-free loan to the United States. The US Treasury market is the largest, most liquid government bond market globally. Foreign entities don’t just sell the US goods – they turn around and invest those dollars into the US market, funding American innovation and growth. The US is a service-based economy, but the US trade deficits we currently hear about in the media are goods only. The US runs significant surpluses in services (think: tech, finance, entertainment, education) that aren’t reflected here. The dollar itself is the US’ greatest export. When other countries use USD for transactions, they’re effectively paying us for the privilege through seigniorage. US consumer benefits are enormous. Americans enjoy lower-priced goods that improve living standards across income levels.”, Voronoi, March 16, 2025
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“The Top 10 Countries With the Biggest Trade Surplus – Fueled by an export boom, China’s trade surplus is the largest globally at $593.9 billion in 2023, skyrocketing from $33.7 billion in 20 years. Germany ranks in second, driven by exports of cars ($174 billion) and vehicle parts ($69.4 billion). The country’s top export destination was America, receiving 10% of its exports. Five of the world’s largest trade surpluses are in Europe, followed by two in Asia based on data from the World Bank as of March 4, 2025. In 2023, China’s trade surplus was greater than the next three countries combined, standing as the top trading partner to 60 countries globally. Since the pandemic, China’s merchandise exports have ballooned by $1 trillion, with the country increasingly exporting to Southeast Asian countries amid growing trade tensions with America and other nations. At a time of sluggish GDP growth and weak domestic demand, China has particularly focused on manufacturing as an engine of economic growth.”, Voronoi, March 16, 2025
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“Donald Trump’s trade war will damage global growth, OECD warns – Forecasts downgraded for a dozen G20 economies and alarm sounded on ‘ratcheting up’ of trade barriers. Global growth will slow this year and next, from 3.2 per cent last year to 3.1 per cent and 3 per cent in 2025 and 2026 respectively, while inflation will be stickier than previously expected, the Paris-based OECD said in its interim outlook as it urged countries to avoid a “ratcheting up of retaliatory trade barriers”. GDP growth in the US will decelerate from 2.8 per cent last year to 2.2 per cent this year and 1.6 per cent in 2026, the OECD said. Higher trade barriers will contribute to persistent inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged until the middle of 2026, it predicted.”, The Financial Times, March 17, 2025
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Global, Regional & Country Travel
“Major U.S. airlines warn consumers aren’t spending – Three of the largest U.S. airlines have cut their revenue or earnings forecasts since Monday’s market close, with all citing weakening consumer demand. Why it matters: Indications are piling up, almost by the hour, that consumers — the engine of the U.S. economy — are losing their nerve amid tariff uncertainty and rising recession fears. Delta, Southwest and American all warned Monday night and Tuesday morning that their first-quarter results will disappoint.”, Axios, March 11, 2025
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“Half of European buyers fear higher US travel costs – The poll of 115 corporate travel and procurement professionals found that 48 per cent thought that travel costs to the US would go up and 35 per cent said it would also become “more difficult” to travel to and from the US under the new Republican government. The survey also revealed a high level of familiarity (83 per cent) among buyers about the UK’s Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) system, which opened for applications from European travellers earlier this month, and the EU’s much-delayed ETIAS scheme – now scheduled for introduction in late 2026.”, BTN Europe, March 17, 2025
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Book Review
“King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency” by Paul Blustein offers an insightful analysis of the U.S. dollar’s enduring supremacy in global finance. Despite recurring forecasts of its decline, Blustein argues that the dollar’s dominance remains resilient, attributing this to the lack of viable alternatives and the inherent strengths of the U.S. financial system. He examines historical and contemporary challenges to the dollar, including economic sanctions and emerging digital currencies, concluding that the dollar’s preeminence is likely to persist barring significant policy errors by the United States. This book is being published today, March 18, 2025
Five Major Takeaways from “King Dollar”:
1. Persistent Dominance: The U.S. dollar continues to hold a central position in global finance, with its dominance proving durable over time.
2. Geopolitical Leverage: The United States effectively utilizes the dollar’s global status to impose economic sanctions, thereby exerting geopolitical influence.
3. Challengers’ Limitations: Alternative currencies, including digital ones, currently lack the necessary infrastructure and trust to supplant the dollar’s role.
4. Responsibility of Dominance: The U.S. must exercise prudent policies to maintain the dollar’s status, as mismanagement could erode its global position.
5. Global Stability: The dollar’s supremacy contributes to international financial stability, serving as a reliable reserve currency and medium of exchange.
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Country & Regional Updates
Argentina
“Argentina’s Milei Signs Decree To Clear the Way for a New IMF Deal – A new IMF deal would improve Argentina’s short- and medium-term economic and financial outlook in the face of limited international financial market access and negative foreign exchange reserves, and open the door to the lifting of capital controls. Argentina is seeking to secure a new IMF deal as it faces significant external financing requirements and limited access to international capital markets.”, RANE Worldview, March 13, 2025
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Canada
“(Canadian) Employers begin layoffs as Canada-U.S. trade war intensifies – Multiple employers are laying off workers as the impact of the U.S.-Canada trade war seeps into the labour force, while other companies are scaling back their hiring plans because of the upheaval. Over the past three weeks, numerous businesses from furniture manufacturers to steel producers have announced layoffs to cope with the uncertainties brought about by U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports, and subsequently, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on some American imports. The Canadian unemployment rate held steady at 6.6 per cent in February, but economists are cautioning that the unpredictability of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff actions could force businesses to cut costs. A recent report from TD Bank economists warned that a flare-up in “tit-for-tat” tariffs between the U.S. and Canada could push the Canadian economy into recession and cause the unemployment rate to spike by 2 per cent.”, The Globe and Mail, March 13, 2025
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China
“China’s latest plan to boost consumption is ‘most comprehensive’ since 1970s – The 30-point strategy to drive up consumer spending tackles a slew of underlying issues, from low wages to the real estate crisis. From increasing workers’ incomes to improving the consumption environment, the policy strategy released on Sunday covers a slew of underlying issues that will need to be addressed if China is to shift its economy onto a consumption-driven growth model. The plan also included measures to stabilise the stock and property markets.”, The South China Morning Post, March 17, 2025
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“How China’s slowing consumer spending is affecting the recovery of F&B firms – Analysts warn that targeted measures are needed to revive the industry, as companies like Nayuki and Xiabu Xiabu report losses and closures. Tepid consumer spending and escalating competition are weighing on the performance of China’s food and beverage (F&B) chains, with analysts warning that chances of a sustained recovery remain slim in the absence of policy support targeted at the sector. Mainland fresh drinks maker Nayuki is expecting an adjusted net loss of up to 970 million yuan (US$134 million) for 2024, compared with a profit of 20.9 million yuan the previous year, according to a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange this week. Hotpot restaurant chain Xiabu Xiabu said in a filing to the Hong Kong exchange this week that it could record a 20 per cent decline in revenue to about 4.8 billion yuan for 2024, alongside a net loss of up to 410 million yuan. It specifically noted that a consumption downgrade continues to put pressure on its mid-to-high-end brand, Coucou.”, The South China Morning Post, March 14, 2025
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Egypt
“Easing food inflation brings relief for struggling Egyptians – Cost of essentials has stabilised, bringing joy at Ramadan, but subsidy cuts loom on fuel and electricity. Inflation fell dramatically in February to 12.8 per cent, down by half compared to the previous month. Though it remains high, it is a far cry from the all-time peak of 38 per cent recorded in September 2023. Shortages in food supplies have also eased. However, Egyptians remain wary about the future with further austerity measures on the horizon. Other essential goods have also seen significant price drops in recent weeks. Rice, which peaked at 32 Egyptian pounds per kilo last Ramadan, is now selling at 16 pounds.”, The National News, March 17, 2025
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Latin America and The Caribbean
“Trade Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean – Argentina experienced an 18.1 percent increase over the previous year, due in part to economic reforms. Since taking office in 2023, President Javier Milei has introduced significant changes meant to revitalize the economy by deregulating certain sectors, cutting subsidies, privatizing state companies and relaxing labor laws. Guyana saw the biggest bump in exports (59.6 percent), driven by rising oil output. In Peru, the rising global demand for minerals, which the country produces in abundance, helped propel 15.8 percent growth in exports. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s recovering oil sector drove an 18.7 percent rise in exports. Nicaragua’s exports declined by 73.3 percent, amid growing U.S. economic pressure over human rights concerns. The United States remained the region’s top trade partner, while countries that have strained relations with Washington (including Nicaragua, Suriname and Bolivia) saw declining exports.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 7, 2025
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Mexico
“Rising Threats to Nearshoring in the Americas – Trump administration policies will create new challenges for nearshoring manufacturing closer to the United States, but a reversal that substantially damages major manufacturing countries’ attractiveness for nearshoring is unlikely. In 2023, Mexico surpassed China as the top exporter to the United States for the first time in decades, a position Mexico held for the second year in a row in 2024. Canada, for its part, is the largest recipient of U.S. exports (though China exports a larger amount to the United States), illustrating the deep interconnectivity of North American supply chains and, amid broader shifts in global trade, pointing to an ongoing uptick in manufacturing in parts of the Western Hemisphere to supply the U.S. market. Multiple factors have driven nearshoring closer to the United States, including rising manufacturing costs in Asia (especially China), the growing attractiveness of operations in the Americas (especially Mexico), and Washington’s expanding push for more resilient and secure supply chains.”, RANE Worldview, March 11, 2025
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Saudi Arabia
“A Slowdown in Saudi Arabia Is Roiling the Consulting Market – For years, Saudi Arabia has leaned on advisory firms to drive an expensive overhaul of its economy. But the kingdom’s once insatiable appetite for foreign consultants is dimming, adding pressure on an industry already buffeted by pressures worldwide. While the country remains one of the biggest markets for consultants in the world, the pace of contract awards has started to slow, according to people familiar with the matter. It’s also led to some firms moving staffers to other locations, including Doha, one of the people said, declining to be identified as the information is private. The government relies on the global network and expertise of major consulting firms to execute on mega projects and initiatives under the Vision 2030 strategy, according to Access KSA, a Saudi Arabia-based business adviser that works to bring foreign companies and investment to the country.”, Bloomberg, March 14, 2025
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United States
“US consumer sentiment tumbles as long-term inflation expectations hit 32-year high – Worse than expected data comes days ahead of Federal Reserve’s next meeting on interest rates. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a preliminary reading of 57.9 in March, the third consecutive monthly drop and the lowest reading since November 2022. Economists expected a smaller fall to 63.1 from 64.7 in February. Inflation expectations one year ahead jumped to 4.9 per cent, their highest level since November 2022. Longer-term inflation expectations leapt to 3.9 per cent from 3.5 per cent, bringing them to their highest level since 1993, according to Bloomberg data. ‘The drumbeat of bad news around the stock market and lay-offs among federal workers is clearly not sitting well with consumers,’ said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. Unemployment fears among consumers polled by the University of Michigan also surged to levels last seen in the 2008 financial crisis.”, The Financial Times, March 14, 2025
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Vietnam
“US Tells Vietnam to Improve Trade Balance Amid Tariff Risks – The US ran a $123.5 billion trade deficit with Vietnam in 2024, according to the Office of the USTR. The trade deficit is the third highest gap for the US, behind China and Mexico. Some of it comes down to re-routing, with Chinese companies setting up shop elsewhere to skirt tariffs. Vietnam overtook Japan as China’s third-largest export destination for the first time in 2024, putting the country at the forefront of the economic conflict between the two superpowers.”, Bloomberg, March 13, 2025
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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“Gong Cha: Bubble tea chain plans huge UK expansion and 2,000 new jobs – Bubble tea chain Gong Cha has revealed plans to open more than 225 stores across the UK and create nearly 2,000 jobs after signing a franchise agreement with a Costa Coffee giant. The London-headquartered business, which was founded in Taiwan in 2006, said the deal with Jinziex forms part of its wider strategy to reach 10,000 locations across the world by 2032. Jinziex is a new company led by Diljit Brar, CEO of Goldex; Azha Rehman, founder and CEO of Kaspa’s Desserts; and Steve Falle, managing director of WY&SF Ltd. Gong Cha currently operates more than 2,100 locations across 28 countries. In the UK, Gong Cha currently runs 13 stores.”, City AM, March 14, 2025
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“What Franchisors and Franchisees Need to Know About the New Tariffs – A set of new U.S. tariffs took effect on March 4, imposing a 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10 percent tariff on imports from China. Energy imports from Canada face a reduced 10 percent tariff. These tariffs, implemented by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), were justified on grounds of illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking. Earlier in February, the U.S. also expanded Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, increasing tariffs on aluminum imports from 10 to 25 percent, effective March 12. In response, Mexico, China, and Canada have imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, further complicating trade relations. A day after the March 4, IIEPA tariffs went into effect, dissatisfied U.S. automakers put pressure on President Trump, who then temporarily granted a one-month exemption on auto tariffs on Mexico and Canada. President Trump also suspended tariffs on all imports that are compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) until April 2. There are several different ways these tariffs impact franchising……..”, Franchising.com, March 2025. An article by Joyce Mazero and Josh Goldberg, Polsinelli.
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“Maintaining Brand Identity While Adapting to International Markets – Expanding a franchise internationally is an exciting opportunity, but it comes with significant challenges. The key to success lies in maintaining your brand identity while being flexible enough to adapt to local markets, and to know which markets are a good fit for your brand. Having developed in 52 countries and visited 132 for consideration, I’ve seen firsthand how brands can thrive, or fail, when entering new territories. Before franchise brands go global there are some critical boxes to be checked.:, Franchising.com, March 17, 2025. This is an article by Hair Parra, the SVP of international operations and development with Captain D’s.
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“Crunch Fitness Announces Major Franchise Expansion into India, Marking South Asian Physical Location Debut – Crunch Fitness, a globally-recognized high-value, multi-amenity gym franchise, today announced the signing of a Master Franchise Agreement for India – a development which will bring a minimum of 75 Crunch Fitness brick-and-mortar gyms to the country in the coming years. The new development marks the brand’s continued international expansion into South Asia alongside Crunch+, the company’s extensive fitness offering, which has been available online for years to Indian consumers. The Indian development will be led by Nikhil Kakkar, former COO of Gold’s Gym India, and business partner Dr. Umesh Kansal, M.D., CEO of several well-established companies in the fitness industry, financial services and global apparel business.”, PR Newswire, February 26, 2025Franchising.com, March 2025
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam
on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
