Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs and More
Commentary about the 127th Issue: In 2025, success in international business isn’t just about crossing borders—it’s about bridging cultures, leveraging technology, and adapting to rapid economic and geopolitical shifts.
As this edition goes to press, the U.S. President has announced tariffs on goods coming into the USA from Canada, China and Mexico. The situation is changing almost hourly! This issue also looks at DeepSeek, the world’s projected population growth by generations including the newest generation, Generation Beta. And the ‘massive’ global work force of 3.67 billion workers of which almost 20% are government workers.
One More Thing: The United States has the largest trade deficit of any country in the world. Last year it was almost US$1 Trillion from just the top ten countries the USA has a trade deficit with.
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“In an era of shifting trade policies and technological disruption, the best global strategy is flexibility and a deep understanding of local markets.”, Richard Branson
“The companies that will thrive in global markets by 2025 are those that embrace digital trade, sustainability, and the agility to pivot amid geopolitical uncertainty.”, Christine Lagarde
“International business in 2025 will be defined by resilience: the ability to manage supply chain disruptions, regulatory changes, and new consumer expectations in a hyperconnected world.”, Klaus Schwab
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Highlights in issue #127:
What the Experts See Coming in 2025
Powering the World: A Look at Global Electricity Generation in 2023
Visualizing the Global Population in 2035, by Generation
These Were the Busiest Airports in 2024
Foreign Investment in Africa Reaches Record $94bn in 2024
Brand Global News Section: Chili’s® and Luckin Coffee®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
Tariff, Tariffs, Tariffs – The U.S. President over the weekend announced 25% tariffs on most goods coming into the USA from Canada and Mexico, 10% on oil and gas coming from Canada and 10% on almost everything coming into the USA from China. As of late on Monday, February 3rd, the US President had calls with the President of Mexico and the Prime Minister of Canada and all agreed to hold off implementing tariffs for at least one month during which they would have talks to try resolve this issue.
Meanwhile, China plans to bring the new USA 10% tariffs to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for discussion. Up till now, China has either imposed or proposed tariffs on $110 billion of U.S. goods, representing most of its imports of American products. And then there is the ban on shipments from China to the USA of certain critical minerals (see below).
Needless to say, the tariff situation is very fluid. Perhaps by our newsletter on February 28 we will have more details on the actual tariffs. Or maybe not……..
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The new U.S. President issued a new America First Trade Policy on January 20. The links below are the full policy and a January 29th analysis of the policy.
CalChamber Analysis by Susanne T. Stirling, Senior Vice President, International Affairs
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For our Artificial Intelligence section in this issue, we will briefly look at DeepSeek which has been in the news recently. Here are some interesting articles from a variety of sources about this new AI tool that speak for themselves.
“Six things DeepSeek won’t tell you about — but ChatGPT will”, The Times of London, January 28, 2025
The DeepSeek Wake-Up Call, The Atlantic, January 30, 2025
Inside Microsoft’s quick embrace of DeepSeek The Verge, January 30, 2025
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says DeepSeek will ‘benefit’ the company and the future of its AI business: The Business Insider, January 30, 2025
Is the DeepSeek Panic Overblown?: Time, January 30, 2025
DeepSeek, Stargate, and the new AI arms race, AP News, January 28, 2025
OpenAI says it has proof DeepSeek used its technology to develop its AI model, The New York Post, January 29, 2025
“The DeepSeek controversy: Authorities ask where does the data come from and how safe is it?”, Malwarebytes.com, January 30, 2025
“How small Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shocked Silicon Valley”, The Financial Time, January 24, 2025
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“What the Experts See Coming in 2025 – In this now sixth year of our Prediction Consensus (part of our comprehensive 2025 Global Forecast Series presented by Inigo Insurance), we’ve summarized the most common predictions and forecasts by experts into a single visual of what they expect to happen in 2025. Drawing from our predictions database of over 800 forecasts compiled from reports, interviews, podcasts, and more, the Prediction Consensus “bingo card” and this article offer an overview of the most cited trends and opportunities that experts are watching for the rest of the year.”, Visual Capitalist, January 26, 2025
Editor’s Note: This chart is, of course, already out of date but it combines input from over 800 forecasts compiled from reports, interviews, podcasts.
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“A massive global workforce – In 2023, the global workforce consisted of 3.627 billion workers. Approximately one-fifth of these people, or 675 million, were employed in the public sector……. Governments must serve their constituents and take care of their employees, including their professional development and job security. This dual mission can be challenging, given constraints such as public scrutiny, competing priorities and stakeholders, politics, budget, and citizen dissatisfaction with government.”, McKinsey & Co., January 30, 2025
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“Visualizing the Global Population in 2035, by Generation – The year 2025 marks the start of Generation Beta. This graphic compares the current population share of each generation with the projected share in 2035, based on data from McCrindle as of May 2024. Generation Beta will be born from 2025 to 2039. They will be the children of younger Gen Ys (Millennials) and older Gen Zs, and many will live to see the 22nd century. By 2035, this group is expected to make up at least 16% of the global population.”, Visual Capitalist and The Federal Reserve, January 17, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Powering the World: A Look at Global Electricity Generation in 2023 – In 2023, the world relied heavily on a mix of sources to power our homes, businesses, and industries. The data from 2023 paints a picture of a world in transition. While fossil fuels still hold a strong grip, generating a combined 60.7% or 17,943.4 TWh of the world’s electricity, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources is a clear sign of a shift towards a cleaner, more sustainable future. Clean energy sources collectively generated 39.3% or 11,619.5 TWh of the world’s electricity in 2023. While the world is transitioning to cleaner energy sources, fossil fuels still dominate global electricity generation. In 2023, coal remained a major player, accounting for a substantial 35.4% of the world’s power, generating a massive 10,460.4 Terawatt-hours (TWh). Natural gas also played a crucial role, contributing 22.6% or 6,668.7 TWh, often favored as a cleaner-burning alternative to coal.”, Visual Capitalist & Ember Electricity Data Explorer, January 18, 2025
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“Beijing’s Ban on Mineral Exports to U.S. Leaves Traders Scrambling – On Dec. 3 (2024), the commerce ministry banned shipments of gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the U.S., and tightened the rules on graphite exports, based on China’s Export Control Law and related regulations. China maintains a dominant position in the global production of gallium, germanium and antimony. According to estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China supplied 98% of the world’s primary low-purity gallium, 60% of germanium, and 48% of antimony in 2023.”, Caixing Global, January 24, 2025
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This chart is based on data from a 27/7 Wall Street article on December 20, 2024 and gives us a glance at the U.S. trade deficit. Almost a trillion dollars each year from just the top 10 countries we trade with.
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Global, Regional & Country Travel
“These Were the Busiest Airports in 2024 – If your flight is departing from an airport on this list, be sure to build in some extra time (and patience). By calculating the airline capacity (the total number of seats), for international and domestic flights in airports across North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, (global travel statistics provider) OAG has determined which airports truly are the world’s most frenetic. Holding firm in first place is Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (ATL). This won’t come as a surprise—the Georgia airport has been named the world’s busiest for 23 of the 24 years the report has been published.”, Conde Nast Traveler, January 21, 2025
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Book Review
In Build Your Cultural Agility, Paula Caligiuri provides a practical guide for professionals navigating the complexities of global business. The investment in global collaboration technology now exceeds US$45 billion. Professionals who work across cultures face some of the most cognitively, psychologically and emotionally difficult challenges, regardless of whether they work virtually or in person. And they often face these challenges without the help of a corporate guide. Build Your Cultural Agility is that guide. 5 Key Takeaways:
1. Adaptability is Critical – Successful global professionals must quickly adjust to new cultural norms and business practices.
2. Emotional Resilience Enhances Performance – Managing stress and ambiguity is essential when working in unfamiliar environments.
3. Curiosity Drives Cultural Learning – Being open-minded and eager to learn improves cross-cultural interactions.
4. Building Trust Across Cultures is Key – Effective communication and respect for local customs foster strong global relationships.
5. Cultural Agility is a Learnable Skill – Through experience, training, and exposure, professionals can improve their ability to work across cultures.
Caligiuri’s book is a must-read for those looking to expand their global mindset and succeed in international business.borders.
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Country & Regional Updates
Africa
“Foreign Investment in Africa Reaches Record $94bn in 2024 – Despite a global decline in foreign investment, Africa saw a significant boost last year, largely driven by a single major urban and tourism project in Egypt. Even without this mega-project, Africa saw a 23% increase in FDI inflows in 2024, totaling $50 billion. The gains came despite a tough economic climate marked by rising interest rates, mounting public debt, and persistent political and security challenges across the continent. Asia, traditionally the largest recipient of FDI among developing regions, saw inflows shrink by 7%, while Latin America and the Caribbean experienced a 9% decline. UN Trade and Development predicts moderate FDI growth in 2025, supported by better financial conditions and a recovery in mergers and acquisitions. However, risks such as geopolitical tensions and global economic instability remain significant challenges for both developing and developed countries.”, Ecofina Agency, January 23, 2025. Compliments of Africa Alert, a regional newsletter published by colin smith.
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China
“China’s financial system is under brutal pressure – When will something break? “Short essays” appear to be causing big problems in China’s bond market. Over the past year the term has been used to refer to rumours swirling around financial hubs, which often originate with brief posts on social media that attempt to explain the inner workings of the system. One such rumour claims that the central bank is hunting down speculators who have made “illegal transactions” on the bond market. Another implies the China Financial Futures Exchange, where bond futures are bought and sold, has ratcheted up fees in order to discourage trading…..Falling (home) prices will please first-time homebuyers, but not banks. They use unsold flats and the land reserves of property developers as collateral against loans.”, The Economist, January 23, 2025
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Germany
“Germany’s Economic Model Is Broken, and No One Has a Plan B – The country is focused on exports, but China is slowing imports and U.S. tariff threats are growing. Politicians are offering few alternatives. Gross domestic product has roughly flatlined since 2019, before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic—the longest period of stagnation since the end of World War II. Most economists expect it will stagnate again this year. Most politicians are focusing on how to tweak and improve the current export-reliant, manufacturing-heavy economic model. New ideas to encourage investment and consumption, boost trade inside Europe or open up to fast-growing tech or services sectors are virtually absent.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 26, 2025
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India
“WeWork’s India franchisee files for Mumbai IPO – WeWork India has an aggregate leaseable area of 602,012 square metres (6.48 million square feet). The offer will consist of the sale of 33 million equity shares by Indian real estate firm Embassy Group (EMBA.NS) and 10.3 million equity shares by 1 Ariel Way Tenant. WeWork India is controlled by real estate tycoon Jitu Virwani and son Karan Virwani who own Bengaluru-based developer Embassy Group. Karan Virwani is CEO of WeWork India.”, Reuters, February 2, 2025
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Japan
“Bank of Japan raises interest rates to highest level in 17 years – Central bank signals more increases to come if wage and price growth hit forecasts. The Bank of Japan has raised short-term interest rates to “around 0.5 per cent”, the highest level in 17 years, as the central bank said that economic activity and wage and price inflation were at targets to justify its push to “normalise” monetary policy. The BoJ’s decision, by an 8-1 vote, raised the policy rate from 0.25 per cent to its highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. The central bank is targeting a stable inflation rate of about 2 per cent.”, The Financial Times, January 24, 2025
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United Kingdom
“(UK) Pay after inflation rises at fastest rate since 2021 – UK pay after inflation has risen at its fastest rate for more than three years, driven by strong wage growth in the private sector. Pay packets increased on average by 3.4% between September and November compared with the same period a year ago after taking into account the impact of price rises, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Growth in private sector earnings was stronger than for public sector jobs.”, BBC, January 21, 202
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United States
“Sales of Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks Are Hitting a Regulatory Wall – Commercial prospects for the vehicles face shifting and contradictory mandates, leaving dealers in limbo. Heavy-duty truck manufacturers and dealers are caught in a swirl of shifting and conflicting rules over zero-emissions big rigs as the changing regulatory landscape undercuts the commercial prospects of the vehicles. Trucking industry officials broadly welcomed California’s move because of battery-electric trucks’ limited driving range compared with diesel and because of the scarcity of electric-charging infrastructure across the state.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2025
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“This Iconic Chain’s Shocking Comeback Is Outpacing Olive Garden and Texas Roadhouse – Ever since the pandemic, sit-down chains have been struggling to stay afloat. From inflation forcing the price of dining out to the healthy eating trend, fewer people have been spending their money at their local Chili’s, Outback, or Olive Garden. However, little by little, the bigger chains are building their customer bases once again. According to stats, Brinker International’s (EAT) Chili’s experienced nearly a 15 percent growth in 2024. Jefferies analyst Andy Barish called the chain ‘the most extreme example of being able to hit a value promotion at exactly the right time and then be able to support it with an incredible amount of social media spending and influencers.’”, Eat This, February 2, 2025
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“Luckin Coffee beat Starbucks in China. It’s now taking its playbook overseas to markets like Malaysia– The chain is expected to copy its successful China playbook of promotions and steep discounts in Malaysia. To commemorate the launch, Luckin priced its beverages as low as 2.99 Malaysian ringgit ($0.67). A Starbucks Americano costs about 11 ringgit ($2.50). The chain’s revenue overtook Starbucks’ Chinese revenue by the following year. Luckin also started its overseas expansion in 2023 with its first Singapore outlet; it now has 45 stores in the city-state, according to its latest quarterly filing. The chain reportedly plans to continue its expansion in Southeast Asia and even to launch in the U.S., aiming for cities with large Chinese student and tourist populations like New York.”, Fortune, January 23, 2025++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam
on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
