The Global Price Of Gas, More Tariffs, China and Franchising
Commentary about the 128th Issue: In the USA the average price of a gallon of gas is US$3.42. In Iran it is 11¢ and in Hong Kong it is US$13. This issue has comparisons of tariffs countries charge each other and how each region of the world depends on cross border trade. India has a big tariff problem with the USA. Global unemployment is the lowest ever recorded but jobless rates are climbing again in both low- and high-income countries. Despite all its challenges, the European Union has a US$19 trillion economy. Long touted as an emerging country with a fast-growing middle class, Indonesia is now losing this key demographic. China continues to export more than other countries want it to.
One More Thing: In this issue’s brand section, various reports indicate 2025 will be a major growth year for the franchise business sector that will probably end 2025 with 9 million employees in over 800,000 individual businesses that collectively are approaching 5% of the USA’s gross domestic product (GDP).
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.”, Maya Angelou
“Happiness depends more upon the internal frame of a person’s own mind, than on the externals of the world.”, George Washington
“People do not buy goods and services. They buy relations, stories, and magic.”, Seth Godin
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Highlights in issue #128:
How Much Each Country Pays for Gas in 2025
The $19 Trillion European Union Economy
Why 2025 Will be a Big Year For Franchising — And How to Capitalize
The restaurant industry is projected to reach US$1.5 trillion in sales this year
India Plans More Tariff Changes to Curb Trump’s Trade Threats
Brand Global News Section: Hilton®, Jollibee®, Pizza Hut®, YUM China
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: 2025 update – Trade relationships are continuing to reconfigure, and changing geopolitics is a major reason. The United States has continued to shift trade away from China and toward other economies such as Mexico and Vietnam. In some cases, this is due to these economies forming an intermediate step in trade flows between China and the United States. European economies have moved away from trade with Russia and increased trade with other partners, notably the United States. Developing economies, rather than advanced ones, now account for the majority of China’s imports and exports. Economies such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Brazil, and India continue to strengthen trade ties across the geopolitical spectrum.”, McKinsey & Co., January 27, 2025
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“Singapore, Japan To Remain Property Hot Spots As Global Investors Diversify: JLL CEO – The real estate markets of Australia, Japan, Korea and Singapore will remain hot spots in the next few years as global investors seek to diversify their portfolios with demand for real estate in China and Europe continues to be soft, according to Christian Ulbrich, global CEO and president of property consultancy JLL. Real estate investments in the Asia Pacific climbed 23% to $131 billion in 2024, led by gains in Australia, India, Japan, Korea and Singapore, according to the capital tracker report published by JLL in January. Singapore—which has been attracting scores of billionaires and high-net worth individuals setting up family offices in the island nation—posted the strongest growth across the region, with global investors pouring over $11.5 billion in the Lion City, up 60% from the previous year.”, Forbes, February 17, 2025
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“Low Global Unemployment Won’t Last – Jobless rates are climbing again in both low- and high-income countries. In 2024, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and tight monetary policies contributed to a slowing global economy. Yet, global unemployment remained stable at 5 percent, its lowest level in decades. In Europe and East Asia, jobless rates fell as economies continued recovering from the pandemic and adjusted to trade restrictions and sanctions on Russia. This decline offset a sharp rise in U.S. unemployment, driven by the Federal Reserve’s high base rate, weak demand and slower hiring. The International Labor Organization does not expect unemployment to stay this low. An upward trend has already emerged in both low- and high-income countries. Meanwhile, despite job growth, real wages have declined in many nations due to persistently high inflation. The ILO sees no immediate factors that could mitigate future labor market risks.”, Geopolitical Futures, February 14, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Cocoa stockpiles plunge to record low – Chocolate makers grab available reserves to counter acute global shortage. Stocks of cocoa in London and New York have plunged to all-time lows in the latest sign of a shortage that has forced chocolate makers desperate to meet Valentine’s Day demand to seek alternative ingredients. Traders and chocolate manufacturers have withdrawn most of the lower-quality surpluses at the world’s largest commodity exchanges as the market struggles to cope with years of poor global harvests.”, The Financial Times, February 13, 2025
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“How Much Each Country Pays for Gas in 2025 – This map tracks the retail price of gas in 169 countries and territories around the world. Data is sourced from Global Petrol Prices, as of Feb 3rd, 2025. Gas is more commonly known as petrol, and also priced per liter in many places. The equivalent cost has been included in the table in the next section. Even amongst the cluster of countries with cheap gas in the Middle East, pump prices in Iran are astonishingly low. On average, Iranians paid 11 cents per gallon in the week of February 3rd.On the other hand, people in Hong Kong paid close to $13/gallon in the same time period.”, Visual Capitalist &Global Petrol Prices, February 12, 2025
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Global, Regional & Country Travel
“Hilton Expects Leisure, Business-Travel Demand to Continue to Grow in 2025 Despite Political Challenges – System-wide top-line growth of 2% to 3% for 2025 expected, CEO says. The company is taking a more positive view on economic and geopolitical conditions as well. Business confidence has been shaken some by Trump’s proposed tariffs, though, forcing companies to scramble to adjust their operations.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 6, 2025
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“Travel agents say Canadians are cancelling U.S. trips amid tariff threats – U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened punishing tariffs, mused about making Canada the 51st state. The threats of a trade war have led to an upswing in Canadian pride, with sports fans booing the U.S. national anthem and polls suggesting Canadian patriotism is on the rise. Now, Canadian travel agents say they’re seeing more customers cancel their U.S. trips and book vacations elsewhere, in wh’t could prove to be an impactful way of voting with their wallets.”, CBC, February 11, 2025
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Book Review
In “The AI-Driven Leader: Harnessing AI to Make Faster, Smarter Decisions,” Geoff Woods provides a comprehensive guide for executives aiming to integrate artificial intelligence into their strategic decision-making processes. Drawing from his tenure as Chief Growth Officer at Jindal Steel & Power, where he facilitated a market cap increase from $750 million to over $12 billion in four years, Woods emphasizes the transformative potential of AI when used as a strategic thought partner. Woods introduces practical tools, including effective AI prompting techniques, to enhance strategic clarity and accelerate data-driven decisions. By presenting real-world examples and prompt libraries, he equips leaders with the means to harness AI effectively, thereby amplifying employee impact and maintaining a competitive edge in an AI-driven landscape.
Five Key Takeaways:
1. AI as a Thought Partner: Leaders should view AI not merely as a tool but as a strategic collaborator to enhance decision-making.
2. Overcoming Operational Overwhelm: Implementing AI can automate routine tasks, allowing leaders to focus on strategic initiatives.
3. Effective AI Communication: Crafting precise prompts and providing context are essential for obtaining valuable AI-generated insights.
4. Accelerated Data-to-Decision Process: AI enables faster analysis and interpretation of data, leading to quicker, informed decisions.
5. Amplifying Employee Impact: Utilizing AI can significantly enhance individual and team productivity, leading to exponential organizational growth.
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Country & Regional Updates
Asia
“Asia’s emerging business corridors: New highways to growth – As geopolitical shifts affect global business corridors, opportunities are opening for companies. Asia is positioned at the epicenter to lead the way in reshaping trade and investment patterns. During this period of transition and uncertainty, Asia remains the key to global connectivity. The newly emerging and fast-growing business corridors are evidence of this. The growth of new corridors in technology, services, and green business will likely be accompanied by opportunities arising from the redirection of established business corridors. These include entrenched but nascent bilateral relations.”, McKinsey & Co., January 20, 2025
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“South-East Asian producers are being hammered by Chinese imports – Deep ties with China stymie a protectionist response. The phenomenon begins in China. Because of a property slump, dispirited consumers and the state’s resistance to large fiscal stimulus, demand is weak. In search of new drivers of growth, China has doubled down on manufacturing. Much of this is bound for export markets: in 2024 China’s net exports made up almost a third of gdp growth, the highest share since 1997. Since the start of 2021, Asean has introduced 104 new trade restrictions on Chinese goods, including both tariffs and subsidies to offset import competition….Governments taking a more protectionist response would result in higher costs for price-sensitive South-East Asian consumers.”, The Economist, February 13, 2025
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Australia
“RBA Poised to Deliver First Rate Cut in Four Years – A majority of economists in a Bloomberg News survey as well traders expect the RBA to finally begin easing tomorrow with a 25 basis-point reduction in the cash rate to 4.1%. A cut may provide a shot in the arm for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.”, Bloomberg, February 16, 2025
(RBA – Reserve Bank of Australia)
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China
“Cheap coffee and smaller pizzas help Yum China survive an uncertain consumer market – China’s economy still can’t shake its consumption slump. Retail sales in China grew by 3.5% in 2024, lower than the headline growth rate of 5% for the year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Yet Yum China, which operates over 16,000 stores, including Chinese outlets of Kentucky Fried Chicken and Pizza Hut outlets, is finding growth in a tougher market. The company, No. 368 on the Fortune 500, managed to grow sales across both its directly owned and franchised outlets by 5% in 2024, ahead of the broader industry. Yum China launched Pizza Hut WOW in May, which offers smaller, more affordable servings for thrifty diners, including a pepperoni pizza for just 29 yuan ($4). “This kind of store is more for individuals, like a small plate of tapas,” a spokesperson told Reuters in early September. The company now has over 200 WOW outlets across China.”, Fortune, February 7, 2025
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“Chinese cars are taking over the global south – Petrol (gas) engines, not batteries, are powering their growth. China has taken a decisive lead as the world’s biggest manufacturer of cars. The number of cars shipped abroad from China reached 4.7m last year, triple the amount three years earlier, according to Citigroup (around a third of these came from multinational brands with factories in the country). The surge is set to continue—in 2030 the bank reckons sales abroad will hit 7.3m. Car-carrying vessels are departing China’s ports in ever greater numbers in part because the domestic market, where 23m passenger vehicles were sold last year, is neither as fast-growing nor as profitable as in the past.”, The Economist, February 13, 2025
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European Union
“The $19 Trillion European Union Economy – Europe’s Economic Giants Hold Their Ground. Germany, France, and Italy have long been the EU’s largest economies, driven by industrial strength, financial hubs, and manufacturing power. Together, they account around 53% of the EU’s $19.4 trillion GDP, with Germany alone surpassing the combined output of the 20 smallest EU economies. However, these top three economies saw stagnating or negative growth last year. Spain and the Netherlands round out the top five, bringing their collective share to 68%. Meanwhile, Malta posted the highest GDP growth at 5% in 2024 but remains the EU’s smallest economy at just 0.1% of the total.”, Visual Capitalist & The International Monetary Fund, February 8, 2025
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India
“India Plans More Tariff Changes to Curb Trump’s Trade Threats – India’s top officials said they will continue to cut import taxes as the government looks to work around US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. Weeks after she unveiled sweeping cuts to duties on imports from textiles to motorcycles, India’s finance minister said that she will carry on the process of reforming the nation’s tariff regime. Economists said India’s higher tariff rate and a $41 billion trade surplus with the US makes the South Asian nation among the most exposed to risks if Trump follows through with plans to impose like-for-like tariffs. Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc said US tariffs on India could rise to above 15%, from around 3% currently, ‘if full reciprocity were enforced in theory.’”, Bloomberg, February 17, 2025
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Indonesia
“Indonesia’s shrinking middle class rattles businesses betting on a boom – People are falling behind as commodities giant fails to deliver well-paid jobs. Pizza Hut’s Indonesian franchisee pinned its hopes on the middle class’s expansion in the world’s fourth-most populous country. But its decision to shut 20 stores and reduce its workforce offers a warning for those betting on a consumer boom in south-east Asia’s largest economy. Businesses selling everything from pizzas to cars have been hit by Indonesia’s shrinking middle class. The number of people considered to be middle class by the government has declined 20 per cent over the past six years, a risk to the commodity giant’s growth plans and a warning for potential investors such as Apple. Economists said the decline had been triggered by a lack of formal employment, a shortage of investment in higher-income industries and overreliance on a commodities sector that has produced poorly paid work — pressures that have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.”, The Financial Times, February 16, 2025
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The Philippines
“Jollibee Jumps Most Since 2020 as Foreign Ownership Cap Scrapped – Move could make stock more attractive for foreign funds. The fast-food chain, known for dishes like fried chicken and sweet spaghetti, said the Philippine Stock Exchange has approved its request which is in line with changes in its articles of incorporation that removes its ability to own, acquire or mortgage land. Apart from expanding its Jollibee brand outlets, the company has made acquisitions in recent years. It took over South Korea’s Compose Coffee for $340 million in July, following investments in a Taiwan milk tea brand in 2021 and the $350 million purchase of Los Angeles-based Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf in 2019.”, Bloomberg, February 12, 2025
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United States
“The restaurant industry is projected to reach US$1.5 trillion in sales this year – 80% of operators are optimistic their sales will be either higher than or the same as they were in 2024, according to the National Restaurant Association’s 2025 State of the Restaurant Industry report. This trajectory is driven by more than just pricing, however. The report indicates that consumers have plenty of pent-up demand, with about 80% stating they would use restaurants more frequently if they had the money (including 81% for table service restaurants, 76% for quick-service, snack, deli, and coffee concepts, and 82% for delivery). Some recent trends suggest consumers may be feeling a bit more confident with their financial status.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, February 6, 2025
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“The International Franchise Association (IFA) today released its annual Franchising Economic Outlook showing that franchise growth exceeded projections for 2024, even in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty and policy headwinds. On top of the 2.2% growth experienced in 2024, which exceeded the 1.9% projection, the report forecasts that franchises will grow an additional 2.4% in 2025, a faster rate than the 1.9% projected for the broader economy by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The full report, conducted by FRANdata, is available here.
“The resilience of the franchise business model not only helped the sector survive the uncertainty of recent years, but thrive in the face of challenging economic conditions,” said Matt Haller, IFA President and CEO. “A more favorable economic and regulatory climate have created new optimism and confidence for the year ahead.
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“Why 2025 Will be a Big Year For Franchising — And How to Capitalize. Franchising is an excellent choice for the business owner who wants to join an established brand that enjoys widespread name recognition, has built customer loyalty and offers reliable, time-tested systems and processes. With a business-friendly environment and strong industry momentum, 2025 presents major opportunities for franchise expansion. AI, automation, and customer-focused strategies will drive franchise success in the coming year. Business services, sustainable brands, and fast-casual food franchises are among the most promising investments for new franchisees.
This article is by Ray Titus, CEO of United Franchise Group (UFG), the global leader for entrepreneurs. With over three decades in the franchising industry and more than 1,800 franchisees throughout the world, UFG offers unprecedented leadership and solid business opportunities for entrepreneurs.”, Entrepreneur magazine, February 13, 2025
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“5 Trends to Watch: 2025 Franchising – Franchise Brokers Face Greater Scrutiny; Increased Regulatory Uncertainty; Restaurant Chain Challenges Expected to Continue; Continued Consolidation of Franchisees; and Increased Focus on Junk Fees.”, by Greenberg Traurig in Lexology, February 10, 2025
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“Franchising Trends in Canada: Here’s What To Expect in 2025 – In 2025, franchising will continue to be a thriving and dynamic sector of Canada’s economy. However, the landscape is evolving, with shifts driven by economic trends, technology, and consumer preferences. Here are some of the key franchising trends that may define Canada’s franchise industry in 2025.”, Franchising.com, February 2025 from an article by Kevin Winters, the franchise development manager with Little Caesars Canada.
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam
on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
