The Year of the Wood Snake Starts on January 29, 2025
Commentary about the 126th Issue: Many more 2025 predictions in this issue, of course. It seems every publication and think tank has predictions this year. USA CEO confidence surged in December. The world’s safest and least safe airlines are ranked. Falling birth rates around the world will impact global productivity and living standards. The number of ‘BRICS’ countries are expanding but it is not clear there is much value in this shaky alliance. Wendy’s® opens its first new restaurant in 40 years in Australia. Upcoming U.S. tariffs are coming and are a BIG topic of discussion but are not defined as of the date of this newsletter – next issue!!!
One More Thing: Syria is being flooded with Pepsi and Pringles as the new rulers open the economy. The end of Assad-era restrictions on dollars, exorbitant duties and extortion leads to a boom in foreign goods once again on store shelves.
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Many obstacles melt away when you decide to boldly walk through them.”, Martin Luther King
“You miss 100 percent of the shots you don’t take.”, Wayne Gretzty, Hall of Fame Hockey Great
“Go as far as you can see; when you get there, you’ll be able to see further.”, J. Pierpont Morgan. Compliments of Beth Adkisson, Vistage Master Chair
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Highlights in issue #124:
CEO confidence surges, indicating growth in 2025
Why the Year of the Wood Snake starting in 2025 could bring major change, and more luck
The world’s safest (and least safe) airlines
Key European Markets and Their Unique Peculiarities
With Indonesia, Brics is adding Southeast Asia to its power base
Wendy’s opens first Australia store in 40 years
Small Business Sales Expectations Return To Normal
Brand Global News Section: Chipolte®, Crumbl® and Wendy’s
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“2025 Global Forecast Report” – This comprehensive report by the Visual Capitalist and Inigo taps into a wide variety of sources. Here are some of the predictions in the report:
“(GDP) Growth is projected to edge up to an average of 2.7% in 2025-26, as trade growth strengthens and broad but measured monetary policy easing supports activity.”, World Bank
“We remain optimistic that major economies can achieve sustained economic growth as interest rates ease, although the range of potential macroeconomic outcomes has widened following the U.S. elections.”, Goldman Sachs
“Globally we are at the tail end of this idea of unlimited government spending. I think deficit reduction will be the theme through 2025. And the main tradeoff here will be real GDP growth.”, Mark Meldrum
“With growing regional ties Emerging Asian economies are enjoying strong growth, driven by the dominance of their IT supply chain and supportive fiscal and monetary policies.”, Amundi
“We are concerned about three pressing issues: China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Hezbollah/Iran/Middle East. Any or all could be the source of a further dramatic shock to the global economy.”, Apollo
“China is in a deflationary trap. They have an overbuilt real estate and infrastructure market, and you cannot remove 100 million empty homes overnight in a population that is not growing anymore.”, Felix Zulauf
“Governments in developed markets are increasingly competing with those in emerging markets for incremental manufacturing investments. With most countries having already outlined manufacturing incentives in recent years, 2025 should be the year in which capital expenditures are implemented.”, S&P Global
“Annual consumer price inflation in the G20 countries is expected to moderate to 3.5% and 2.9% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, from 5.4% this year. By the end of 2025 or early 2026, inflation is projected to be back to target in almost all major economies.”, OECD
“India will again be a bright spot for long-term investors. The country’s prospects remain solid, underscored by advantageous demographics and investments in infrastructure and manufacturing.”, Fidelity
“While some countries are trying to remain ‘non-aligned’, we expect most countries to eventually fall inside either the U.S. or Chinese ‘sphere of influence’–or at least have to lean one way or the other as the U.S. and China make it increasingly complicated to equally straddle both camps.”, Deutsche Bank
“Voters across the globe sent incumbent parties packing in 2024. We will see if that anti-incumbent mood carries over into 2025.”, James M. Lindsay, Council on Foreign Relations
“The (China) “old economy”, including sectors like housing, construction, and steel continue to experience weak demand. In contrast, the “new economy” including electric vehicles and green transition sectors are suffering from overcapacity.”, KKR
“In 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.”, Sam Altman, CEO OpenAI
“We expect companies across the AI value chain to generate more than $1.1 trillion in revenue by 2027, just five years after the onset of ChatGPT.”, UBS
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“Why the Year of the Wood Snake starting in 2025 could bring major change, and more luck – On January 29, 2025, the celestial dragon will make way for the earthly snake in the Chinese lunisolar calendar. If history is anything to go by, the year ahead will be a time of dynamic change – much as the world experienced in the previous Year of the Wood Snake. Since each elemental animal follows a 60-year cycle, the last Year of the Wood Snake was in 1965.”, South China Morning Post, January 1, 2025
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“Tariffs on the move? A guide for CEOs for 2025 and beyond – Tariffs are top of mind for executives—and are likely to stay there. Understanding various tariff scenarios can position leaders to seize opportunities in the coming years. But despite widespread concerns, few leaders have developed robust plans to understand the second- and third-order effects and to steer their businesses through potential scenarios. Those who understand tariffs—and their likely impacts—will be better positioned to navigate the ambiguities of 2025 and beyond.”, McKinsey & Co., December 19, 2024
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“Falling birth rates raise prospect of sharp decline in living standards – People will need to produce more and work longer to plug growth gap left by women having fewer babies, report says. Many of the world’s richest economies will need to at least double productivity growth to maintain historical improvements in living standards amid sharp falls in their birth rates. Two-thirds of people now live in countries with birth rates per woman below the so-called “replacement rate” of 2.1, while populations are already shrinking in several OECD member states — including Japan, Italy and Greece — along with China and many central and eastern European countries.”, The Financial Times, January 14, 2025
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“Is BRICS+ Gathering Steam as a G7 Rival? The BRICS+ sphere is growing, adding five new members and eight new “partner” countries in in the last year. Together this bloc accounts for around 29% of the global economy in 2025, which is still dominated by the G7. The BRICS acronym initially started as a way to signal investment opportunities in fast-growing economies in the 2000s. Since then, the five founding members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have tried to create a platform supporting a multipolar world, with global institutions that are not funded by Western nations.”, Visual Capitalist, January 16, 2025
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“The great global redistributor we never hear about: money sent or brought back by migrants – Migrants send or bring back over three times the amount of money provided by global foreign aid. Cutting transaction fees could make this support even more effective in reducing poverty. The main beneficiaries are middle-income countries. Upper-middle-income countries send 7% but receive 30%, and lower-middle-income countries send only 4% but receive 44%. This also means that very little money reaches the poorest countries4, where people need it the most. Low-income countries receive just 1.7% of all money sent or brought back by migrants, despite being home to 9% of the global population.”, Our World In Data, January 13, 2025
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“CEO confidence surges, indicating growth in 2025 [Q4 Vistage CEO Index] – Heading into 2025, CEO confidence is optimistic on all fronts. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index soared 15.7 points to reach 100.8, signaling the approach of the long-anticipated growth cycle. Excluding the post-pandemic surge created by stimulus: Positive sentiment about the future of the U.S. economy spiked to levels last recorded in Q1 2017. Over three-quarters (76%) of CEOs expect increased revenue in the new year. Plans for increased investments and hiring both reached levels above Q4 2019 and the norms from the 2010s.”, Vistage, January 15, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“EU and Mexico revive stalled trade deal as Trump tariffs loom – The European Union and Mexico revived a stalled free trade agreement on Friday, days before the return to the White House of Donald Trump, who has threatened both sides with tariffs.
The two parties are seeking to update their trade accord from 2000, which covers only industrial goods, by adding services, government procurement, investment and farm produce. EU proponents say the bloc urgently needs new partners to reduce its reliance on China, particularly for critical raw materials, and to insulate it from Trump tariffs. Last month, It struck a deal with South America’s Mercosur bloc.”, Reuters, January 17, 2025
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“With Port Strike Averted, Dockworkers Draw New Curbs on Automation – A new six-year contract sets a 62% pay increase along with tougher standards for adding robotics to the docks. The pact would allow operators of automated equipment at ports in New Jersey and Virginia, where multiple machines are managed by a single dockworker at a time, to continue to use the semiautonomous cranes, according to people familiar with the matter. But the agreement says that companies that add semiautonomous equipment must hire one dockworker for each new crane added, the people said.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 9, 2025
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“Chinese Merchants Plow Cash Into Overseas Warehouses Amid Global E-Commerce Boom – China’s e-commerce merchants are investing ever more in overseas warehouses to keep pace with the booming cross-border trade and make deliveries more efficient. As of the end of June (2024), Chinese companies had built more than 2,500 warehouses overseas, of which over 1,800 are dedicated to serving cross-border e-commerce transactions, Ministry of Commerce data showed.”, Caixin Global, January 7, 2025
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Global, Regional & Country Travel
“The world’s safest (and least safe) airlines – A new report has named the best and worst, but is judging the safety of an airline really so straightforward? This month, a new report from AirlineRatings.com takes stock of the publicly available data to rank the world’s safest airlines. Despite a handful of accidents in 2024, the overall message on air travel from authorities remains the same as it has been for decades: flying is significantly safer than driving, with the chances of any kind of accident vanishingly small. When it comes to full-service airlines, the top spots go to Air New Zealand (in first place), followed by Qantas, Cathay Pacific, Qatar Airways and Emirates. British Airways finishes in 15th place, just above Iberia, Finnair, and Lufthansa.”, The Telegraph, January 19, 2025
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Book Review
In How the World Ran Out of Everything, Peter S. Goodman delivers a compelling analysis of how global supply chains collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through detailed reporting and vivid storytelling, he reveals how decades of prioritizing efficiency through just-in-time manufacturing and concentrated production created dangerous vulnerabilities in the global economy.
His investigation is particularly powerful when examining how supply chain failures disproportionately impacted developing nations, exposing deep inequities in the global economic system.
Key Takeaways:
Efficiency vs. Resilience: The relentless pursuit of lean operations eliminated crucial safety margins
Geographic Risk: Concentrated manufacturing created dangerous global chokepoints
Social Impact: Supply chain failures hit developing nations hardest
System Failure: Traditional risk assessment proved inadequate for global crises
Future Solutions: Strategic redundancy and diversification are essential for resilience
Goodman presents balanced solutions for building resilience while preserving the benefits of global trade. Goodman shows how the pursuit of lean operations led companies to eliminate redundancies and stockpiles that could have helped weather the pandemic’s disruptions. Through compelling case studies, he illustrates how this efficiency-at-all-costs mindset created cascading failures across industries and borders.++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Country & Regional Updates
Canada
“The one way that productivity is improving in Canada – Since the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, sales per employee for companies in the S&P/TSX Composite Index are up by about 20 per cent. This spike in productivity has translated into higher profit margins. Now at around 12.5 per cent across the market’s benchmark index, Canadian margins are on par with those of U.S. blue chips. How does this jibe with Canada’s productivity crisis? Economists have sounded the alarm over declining output per hour worked, which has made Canada 30 per cent less productive than the U.S. The first thing to remember is that the stock market is not the economy. The TSX is globally oriented, with considerable strength in the resource industries.”, The Globe and Mail, January 12, 2025
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China
“China’s population drops for third year in a row despite uptick in births – Though China’s birth rate rose this year after an all-time low in 2023, the country’s overall population continued its decline. The total population dropped by 1.39 million in 2024 to 1.4083 billion, down from 1.4097 billion people in 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday. Demographers have said it is possible China’s fertility rate dropped below 1.0 in 2023, but an official fertility rate for last year has not been provided.”, The South China Morning Post, January 17, 2025
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“China’s Economic Outlook in 2025 – After declaring that China had “smoothly” achieved its targets for 2024, President Xi Jinping said in late December that the nation faces a “very arduous” year of reform in 2025. He’s not wrong, at least about the second point. Many economists and market watchers think that escaping deflation needs to become China’s top priority this year. Prices are falling as households pare back spending during a property crash, prompting comparisons to Japan’s lost decades. The country’s economy needs reforms that reduce overcapacity and allow inefficient zombie firms to fail — but that would mean layoffs, making things worse in the short term. It remains to be seen how Xi will navigate these issues. But on the last day of 2024, he warned a group of politicians that ‘the journey of Chinese modernization” would include “choppy waters, and even dangerous storms.’”, Extracted from a Bloomberg article on ‘What Wall Street Banks Are Watching in 2025’, January 12, 2025
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Egypt
“IMF Pressure Breathes New Life Into Egypt’s Privatization Efforts – Egypt’s partial privatization efforts will somewhat reduce the government and the military’s role in the economy, and boost private sector engagement and market competition. However, increasing foreign currency reserves will grant Cairo flexibility in both the timeline and the extent of its privatization efforts. The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, announced on Dec. 24 that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Egypt to disburse $1.2 billion after completing the fourth review of the country’s expanded $8 billion program. To unlock the disbursement, Cairo agreed to meet the Fund’s conditions, including accelerating its ongoing privatization efforts to decrease the government and military’s role in the economy.”, RANE Worldview, January 9, 2025
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Indonesia
“With Indonesia, Brics is adding Southeast Asia to its power base – Indonesia has become the first Southeast Asian country to join Brics as a full member. Together with its Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) counterparts Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, Indonesia was invited last October to be a Brics “partner country”, a category created at the Kazan summit with a path to full membership. Among them, only Vietnam has yet to accept. As countries in the West reorient supply chains in the name of national security, Global South countries are collaborating to align their policies and build their own reliable supply chains for critical minerals and related technologies and industries.”, South China Morning Post, January 12, 2025
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Syria
“Syria flooded with Pepsi and Pringles as rulers open economy – End of Assad-era restrictions on dollars, exorbitant duties and extortion leads to boom in foreign goods. In the weeks since Assad was deposed in an offensive led by Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, imported western and regional goods have poured into shops. Around the capital Damascus, stores are now lined with Turkish bottled water, Saudi-produced bouillon cubes, Lebanese powdered milk and western chocolate brands such as Twix and Snickers. In one supermarket in the centre of the city, an entire wall was dedicated to Pringles. Foreign items used to be hidden behind counters and sold in secret to those who knew to ask. The new HTS-led government has since permitted transactions in dollars, and on Saturday announced a new set of unified custom fees that it said reduced fees by 50 to 60 per cent. It added that lower fees on raw material imports would help protect local producers.”, The Financial Times, January 12, 2025
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United Kingdom
“UK economy will outdo Germany, France and Italy, predicts IMF – UK economic growth will outpace Germany, France and Italy over the next two years, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. Gross domestic product (GDP) is set to expand by 1.6 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2026, well above the projected growth rates for Europe’s major economies, according to the Washington-based group’s analysis. The United States and the UK are the only nations in the G7 to receive upgrades on their growth forecasts for this year since the fund’s last report in October. However, the IMF lowered its growth projection for the UK in 2024 to 0.9 per cent from 1.1 per cent. Spain will also outpace the UK in 2025 and 2026.”, The Times of London, January 17, 2025
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United States
“Small Business Sales Expectations Return To Normal – By industry, manufacturing was most optimistic with a net 34% expecting improved real sales. This sector has been underperforming for years, so they are looking to grow, a fresh start. Firms in finance and real estate are equally positive about sales. Firms in the two services sectors have a positive view of sales growth but less exuberant. On the downside, firms in construction, transportation and communication, and agriculture still have a negative view for sales growth. The trades were balanced, with about as many owners expecting sales improvements as expect sales declines.”, Forbes, January 17, 2025
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Exploring Europe: Key European Markets and Their Unique Peculiarities – For restaurant groups and U.S.-based brands considering European franchise expansion, the continent offers a blend of opportunities and challenges. Each country presents unique cultural, economic, and regulatory dynamics that shape franchising strategies. Here’s a closer look at five key European markets and their distinct franchising landscapes.”, Franchising.com, January 2025. Article by Rebecca Viani, White Space Partners
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“Following Openings in the Middle East, Chipotle Looks to Continue Plans for Global Growth – Chipotle is increasing its strategy for international growth with recent openings in the Middle East and plans for further expansion into Western Europe and beyond. The fast-casual Mexican chain signed its first-ever development agreement with international franchise retail operator Alshaya Group in 2023 to bring the brand to the Middle East. It opened its first restaurants in Kuwait in April and in Dubai in October and will add more locations across the region in coming year. Chipotle has……taken a methodical approach and currently has more than 40 locations in Canada, about 20 in the U.K., six in France, and two in Germany.”, Franchsiing.com, January 2025
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“Bakery franchise chain Crumbl explores US$2 billion sale, sources say – The owners of the cookie chain are hoping to command a valuation for the business equivalent to more than 10 times its annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of nearly $150 million, the sources said. Launched in 2017 by cousins Jason McGowan and Sawyer Hemsley, Crumbl in recent years has amassed a sizable social media following across platforms such as TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. The company, which sells its cookies in a distinctive pink box with its logo, opened its first location in 2017 in Logan, Utah, when Hemsley was finishing his degree at Utah State University. Crumbl is now present in 1,071 locations across North America, according to its website.”, CTV News, January 13, 2025
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“Wendy’s opens first Australia store in 40 years – The world’s largest franchisee operator Flynn Group is taking a punt on the Australian fast food market opening a Wendy’s store on the Gold Coast. It comes forty years after the last one closed down. Flynn Group purchased the rights to Wendy’s in Australia in late 2023 and has spent more than 15 months planning today’s opening.”, Sky new Australia, January 15, 2025
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“AI and Franchise Sales: Driving Smarter Decisions, Avoiding Costly Errors – The rise of AI and automation is reshaping industries worldwide, and franchising is no exception. From lead generation to candidate engagement, the potential for efficiency and scale is immense. However, the promise of AI often blurs the distinction between meaningful investments and tools that could lead to costly missteps. Franchise sales are not just about technology; they are about relationships, strategy, and aligning with the right candidates. Missteps in adopting AI can lead to inefficiencies, impersonal interactions, and ultimately, financial and reputational losses. For franchisors to truly benefit from automation, it’s critical to assess and refine the foundation of their sales processes. Without this groundwork, even the best AI tools can amplify existing flaws.”, Franchisesales.org, January 13, 2025. From an article by Joe Caruso.
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam
on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
