Global trade to hit record $33tn in 2024, uncertainty looms for 2025
Commentary about the 123th Issue: As the year winds down, predictions for 2025 are rolling in, and the outlook for global business is anything but dull. In this edition of my biweekly newsletter, I’m sharing stats, charts, and insights from trusted sources to help you prepare for what’s ahead.
Global trade is set to hit a record $33 trillion in 2024, but uncertainty looms large for 2025. Why? Here’s a glimpse: 71 countries—representing nearly half the world’s population and over half of global GDP— held elections in 2024. Talk about “elections have consequences” on a global scale. The ripple effects will reshape how and where we do business in 2025.
Add to this the impact of upcoming tariffs and China’s aggressive export of excess manufactured goods, and 2025 starts to look like a year of both challenges and opportunities. The need for careful planning and flexibility has never been greater.
And the Chinese government has finally announced new stimulus to try to bring back consumer spending…………
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier. Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity.” – Albert Einstein
“The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page.” – Saint Augustine
“Alone we can do so little; together we can do so much.” – Helen Keller
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Highlights in issue #122:
Here’s Where The Most Babies Are Born Every Hour
The World’s Biggest Importers of Goods
Global trade to hit record $33tn in 2024, but uncertainty looms for 2025
China eases monetary policy for the first time in 14 years
Top Countries by Computing Power
Revolution Time: AI is Transforming the Franchising Industry
Brand Global News Section: Jolibee® and McDonalds®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Top Countries by Computing Power – As of November 2024, the United States has the most systems in the TOP500 ranking, at 172. It also has the highest combined value of maximum achievable performance, at 6.5 million TFlops (Teraflops). After the U.S., other top countries by computing power include Japan, Italy, and Switzerland. Today, China is ranked seventh, with only 63 systems making it into the TOP500—but this ranking is most likely being skewed downwards. Many believe that China is withholding details about its newest supercomputers for geopolitical reasons.”, Visual Capitalist & TOP500, December 1, 2024
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“Global trade to hit record $33tn in 2024, but uncertainty looms for 2025 – Outlook remains uncertain due to risks of expanded trade wars, US policy shifts and geopolitical challenges. The trade value will increase by about $1 trillion this year, reflecting 3.3 per cent annual growth, the UN Trade and Development (Unctad) said in its new Global Trade Update report on Thursday. However, the outlook for next year remains uncertain due to risks of expanded trade wars and geopolitical challenges, prompting calls for strategic action from developing economies. It is clouded by potential US policy shifts, including broader tariffs that could disrupt global value chains and affect trading partners, the report said.”, The National, December 5, 2024
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“(McKinsey & Co.) Global Economics Intelligence executive summary – Third-quarter GDP reports reveal a mixed global economy. China faces an economic slowdown; the United States sees growth; and the eurozone is stable. The IMF forecasts a slow but stable global trajectory into 2025. Unsurprisingly, forecasts for 2024 and 2025 see emerging markets and developing economies growing fastest at 4.2% across both years, while the advanced economies collectively are expected to grow 1.8% annually.”, McKinsey & Co., November 22, 2024
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“Here’s Where The Most Babies Are Born Every Hour – Half of all global births each hour happen in just nine countries, with one in four taking place in India or China. Five of the nine are in Asia and another three in Africa, with the U.S. the only representative from the rest of the world. However, birth rates are falling across the globe. Combined with low immigration and steady death rates, population declines are expected soon for countries like China.”, Visual Capitalist & UN Population Prospects, December 6, 2024
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“Protiviti-Oxford survey shows ‘us vs. them’ disconnect in how global execs view data privacy – 86% of executives say they are confident or extremely confident their company is doing everything it possibly can to protect customer data. Only 8% of global executives say they are concerned or extremely concerned about their company’s ability to protect customer and client data over the next five years. 80% of global business leaders say AI will be beneficial for their company’s data privacy and cybersecurity strategies over the next five years. Only 5% said AI would be harmful to those efforts.”, Protiviti-Oxford survey Executive Outlook on the Future of Privacy, 2030.
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“The World’s Biggest Importers of Goods – Today, 10 countries account for imports worth $12.4 trillion, representing more than half of the global total. From the U.S. to India, the world’s leading importers are characterized by robust economies and sizable consumer markets. Factors such as business investment, disposable income, and exchange rates also play a significant role in shaping import dynamics. Due to its large consumer base and advanced economy, the U.S. is the world’s largest importer of many product categories including cars, electronics, industrial machinery, and pharmaceuticals.”, Visual Capitalist & The World Trade Organization, November 27, 2024
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“Supply chain inventory inertia – 2020 marked a year of unparalleled supply chain chaos largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, disruptions still persist and, worryingly, many companies seem to be easing their focus on supply chain resilience… in the latest McKinsey Global Supply Chain Leader Survey, while 47 percent of respondents plan to maintain current inventory levels, 46 percent anticipate decreasing or nixing risk buffers, with inventories dropping to or below prepandemic levels. Only 7 percent intend to up network inventory.”, McKinsey & Co., December 3, 2024
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“Why Europe’s Vaunted Car Industry Is in Crisis, in Charts – New tariffs under Donald Trump would pose yet another challenge for Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW. Europe’s carmakers used to rule the world. Now they are fighting battles on every front. At home, tougher emissions rules are forcing them to sell more electric vehicles, which are less profitable. In China, the rise of local competition is bringing the curtain down on a golden era for German brands. The latest threat is in the U.S., where President-elect Donald Trump champions tariffs. The turmoil is already leading to thousands of job losses and risks inflicting further damage on Europe’s economy, which has struggled to grow as fast as the U.S. in recent years. The automotive industry accounts for roughly 7% of gross domestic product in the European Union—far higher than stateside.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 3, 2024
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Global, Regional & Country Travel
“Want to know what will shape travel in 2025? Amadeus thinks it knows – The new year will bring in a new era of travel, defined by nostalgia, personalization and the rise of destination hotels. And with Asia’s tourism sector experiencing a remarkable boom, travelers are increasingly drawn to authentic experiences that foster spontaneous connections, a new survey has revealed. According to the Travel Trends 2025 study by Amadeus and forecasting agency Globetrender, five key trends will shape the travel landscape in 2025.”, Hotels Magazine, November 29, 2024
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Book Review
The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk, and Luck” by David Spiegelhalter delves into the pervasive role of uncertainty in everyday life and how individuals and societies can better understand and manage it.
The book begins by acknowledging that uncertainty is an unavoidable aspect of life, from personal decisions to global challenges like climate change and pandemics. Spiegelhalter argues that instead of fearing uncertainty, we should embrace it as an opportunity to apply critical thinking and probabilistic reasoning.
Spiegelhalter explores real-world examples, such as medical diagnoses, weather forecasting, and financial market predictions, to demonstrate how misinterpreting probabilities can lead to flawed decisions. He critiques the over-reliance on statistical models, highlighting their limitations, especially in complex systems
In the end, Spiegelhalter encourages readers to adopt a mindset that blends logic and flexibility. By understanding the principles of probability and the limitations of certainty, we can navigate life’s uncertainties more confidently and make better-informed decisions. This book serves as both a philosophical exploration and a practical guide to thriving in a world where chance and risk are ever-present.
Editor’s Note: This book is now available in the United Kingdom amd will be available in the USA in March 2025.
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Country & Regional Updates
Asean Countries – Association of Southeast Asian Nations
“ASEAN: Beneficiaries of Global Trade’s Realignment – More than a sixth of all foreign direct investment in 2023 flowed into the Southeast Asian bloc. Amid global uncertainties, companies diversifying supply chains away from China have driven a surge in foreign direct investment into the countries that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In 2023, FDI inflows to the region reached $236 billion, up sharply from the annual average of $190 billion from 2020 to 2022. ASEAN’s share of global FDI rose to 17 percent in 2023, compared to an average of just 6 percent from 2006 to 2015.”, Geopolitical Futures, December 5, 2024
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Brazil
“Brazilian real hits all-time low on worries over public finances – Brazil’s currency hit an all-time low against the US dollar after government pledges of R$70bn (US$12bn) in cost savings failed to quell investor anxiety over the state of public finances in Latin America’s largest economy. The real fell more than 0.9 per cent to touch R$5.99 to the greenback on Thursday morning, before recovering some of its losses, as investors digested long-awaited measures from the administration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva designed to balance the budget.”, The Financial Times, November 28, 2024
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China
“GM to Take More Than $5 Billion in Charges on China Operations – U.S. auto giant General Motors Co. expects to take more than $5 billion in charges on its China joint venture with SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd. The two charges are related to a restructuring of the JV — including plant closures — and its reduced value. GM’s China business, once a major profit driver, is now taking on losses, underscoring foreign carmakers’ struggle to compete with domestic rivals in the world’s largest auto market.”, Caixin Global, December 5, 2024
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“China eases monetary policy for the first time in 14 years – China’s top officials have announced that the country would pursue a “moderately loose” monetary policy stance after new data revealed that deflationary forces continued to affect the world’s second-largest economy. The shift to a more accommodative monetary policy stance from a “prudent” approach was the first change in 14 years. It comes as leaders prepare to convene their annual meeting, known as the Central Economic Work Conference, this month to set out their economic agenda for the year ahead. Officials said the country would ‘implement more proactive fiscal policies’ to revive slowing economic growth.”, The Times of London, December 9, 2024
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“China’s Flood of Cheap Goods Is Angering Its Allies, Too – Torrent of exports to the developing world is causing factories to close and killing jobs. A deluge of cheap Chinese goods washing over the developing world is jacking up tensions between China and the Global South, complicating Beijing’s plans to build alliances as it confronts escalating trade tensions with the U.S. But many of those countries are pushing back, as cut-price Chinese imports put pressure on their factories, killing jobs and blocking efforts to grow manufacturing at home.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 3, 2024
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Turkey
“Turkey’s Economy Tumbles Into Recession as Central Bank Tightening Takes Effect – The GDP shrinkage comes after months in which Turkey’s central bank has kept its key interest rate at 50%. Turkey’s economy sank into a recession over the summer, with economic activity squeezed by high interest rates as the country’s central bank sought to tame inflation. Gross domestic product shrank by 0.2% on a quarterly basis between July and September, according to data from the Turkish statistical agency on Friday, matching the contraction of the prior quarter, which had been revised downward. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declining economic output.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2024
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United Arab Emirates
“Heineken to open first brewery in Dubai – Dutch giant signs joint-venture deal that will start producing brands such as Amstel and Birra Moretti in 2027. Its hotels, beaches and attractions, such as the world’s tallest tower, the Burj Khalifa, attracted some 17 million people last year, many from Europe, Russia and India. Known as the party capital of the Gulf because of its beach clubs and more liberal attitude compared with “dry” neighbours such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, it has been implementing secularising reforms to attract more tourists. These include liberalising laws governing alcohol consumption and changing the working week to align with the West.”, The Times of London, November 28, 2024
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United States
Oil, Raspberries, Smartphones: What the U.S. Imports From Canada, Mexico and China – Trump administration could change America’s relationship with its three biggest trading partners. Avocados. Tequila. Laptops. Lumber. These are some of the common items America buys from Canada, Mexico and China. There are also other, perhaps less expected items: America purchases a lot of frozen french fries from Canada. If Donald Trump carries through on his new tariff threats, consumers could see prices rise on lots of basic items for their everyday lives. The cost of home construction might go up, as the U.S. buys billions of dollars of lumber from Canada that is used for such things as framing, flooring and building-interior details including cabinets and furniture.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2024
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“U.S. Economy Is Doing What Few Others Are: Getting More Productive – Many businesses have been able to do more with less and increase their revenue without passing on higher costs to customers. Inflation and the labor market are both cooling, but a subtle force has powered strong U.S. economic growth nonetheless. Americans keep finding ways to get more done at work. As a result, many businesses have been able to do more with less and up their revenue without passing on higher costs to customers… Over the past five years, quarterly year-over-year productivity growth has averaged 2.1%, a sharp improvement from growth over the 10 years prior. In Europe, productivity has grown by less than a 1% compounded annual rate since 2015. In Canada, annual productivity growth has averaged barely better than 0% since 2019.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 5, 2024
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Revolution Time: AI is Transforming the Franchising Industry – The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into franchising is reshaping the industry. As franchisors and franchisees adapt to the evolving digital landscape, AI is becoming a pivotal tool for enhancing efficiency, improving customer service, and driving growth. By leveraging AI, franchises can enhance their operations, deliver superior customer experiences, and foster a culture of continuous improvement.”, Evan Hackel, Franchising.com, December 2024
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“McDonald’s Vs Jollibee: The Obscure Fast Food Rivalry, Explained – Filipino fast food chain Jollibee provides a remarkable case study in how savvy marketing can create a socio-economic bullseye that even McDonald’s hasn’t fully managed to hit. By 1981, McDonald’s had begun its colossal rollout to the Philippines, putting pressure on smaller franchises to sell out. Tan Caktiong instead flew to the U.S., analyzed what fast food giant McDonald’s was doing right, then sought to infuse that model with his unique understanding of Filipino tastes and values.” Mashed, December 7, 2024
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“New tea drinks enter the US market preparation period lasts a year founders work on local regulations – The potential of the American milk tea market is not small. However, it is not easy to enter the American market and take root. At present, the tea industry in the United States is undergoing a quiet change. From the introduction of pearl milk tea in the 1960s to the emergence of various new tea brands today, the US market has become a new battlefield for global tea brands to compete, with pearl milk tea, fruit tea, light milk tea and other subcategories emerging in the US market. At present, Heytea has opened more than ten stores in the U.S., mainly in the core business districts of New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Irvine and other cities. In July 2024, Heytea opened its first West Coast store in Beverly Hills, California.” Vicai News (Mandaran), December 5, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“Responsible Franchising: What Does it Really Look Like? Franchising is much more than a business model — it’s a personal journey. A responsible franchisor must be completely transparent and honest about both the opportunities and the risks. Owning a business is hard work, and opening a franchised business is no different. Long hours, challenges, and perseverance are part of the package. A franchisor’s responsibility is to communicate that truth, clearly and early. One of the key components in responsible franchising is ensuring that franchisees are going to be a good fit for the brand. Franchising is a unique way to make entrepreneurial dreams come true, and responsible franchising proves that when partners support one another, everyone wins.”, Kelsey Stuart, Franchising.com, December, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam
on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
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For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
