The International Energy Agency* projects that the global demand for oil will rise 23% from 85 million barrels a day in 2008 to about 106 million barrels a day in 2030.
Oil demand by developing countries is projected to rise 62% to about 56 million barrels a day by 2030.
In the developed world, however, oil demand is expected to decline – yes, decline – by 10% to about 40 million barrels a day.
This shift from the majority of today’s main oil need going from developed countries to energy hungary developing countries is likely to have profound implications for the world trade balance.
And may result in potentially game changing political alliances as the developed world concentrates on other energy sources while the developing world seeks more and more oil.
Where will this oil come from? Will the same sources be providing energy as today?
Of course, this is very hard to predict. Recent projections that oil supply is about to peak globally are being proven wrong by immense deep water finds off the northwest coast of Brazil and in the supposedly fully explored US Gulf of Mexico. And much of the western coast of Africa remains unexplored based on current geophysical exploration technology.
And then there is the US gas component. Recent major discoveries in long explored areas of the US may result in a long term electric power generation solution through clean burning indigenous gas without expensive liquid imports that were thought necessary just a couple years ago. Perhaps the US’ energy ‘crisis’ once again will be solved by local, new sources of oil and gas – albeit at a price.
Meanwhile governments have gotten into the energy exploration business. The Chinese character for crisis also means opportunity. Government controlled Chinese companies are tying up major oil fields and exploration areas directly with other governments, essentially eliminating private oil and gas exploration companies.
And what does the projected 62% increase in oil demand for the developing world mean for all of us on this small blue planet???
* As reported in the November 10, 2009 edition of ’The Economist’ magazine.
